With Fractional Charting, virtually any race-goer can approach a day at the race track, or Off Track Betting facility with greater confidence. Whether you are a new or experienced handicapper Fractional Charting simple layout and insightful information is a new easier way to visual and understand the pace and shape of the race. You now have access to the same type of inside information professional handicappers have been using for years. Unlike traditional past performances that show the actual times of each race, Fractional Charting, based on a representative race (chosen by our expert staff) shows you a projection of how each horse will perform in today’s races. This makes it easier to see likely pace scenarios, front runners, potential speed duels, the swiftest closers and possible long-shot threats.
Fractional Charting has been created using very sophisticated algorithms which have been refined and proven for over 40 years of experience and our robust database normalizes the raw data to project how the horse will run in today’s new race conditions. By normalizing the raw past performances you now can easily see how each past performance will translate to today’s race conditions. In other words, each past performance has been converted to give you actual expected times at each point of call for today’s race if they ran that past race on today’s race track, distance, and surface. Instead of comparing apples to oranges like you normally do with traditional past performances you now can compare apples to apples because all past performances have been converted to today’s race conditions saving you time and giving you a higher level of accuracy in your handicapping which translates into more confidence in your selections and higher paying cashed tickets.
Often times a horse that may not have the ability to win a race will be a favorite due to it is coming off a win while another horse is overlooked on the tote board because it’s last race was less than exceptional. One of the reasons this occurs is most people handicap with traditional past performances which don’t always tell the whole story and often times important details have been left out which may suggest the overlooked horse may be more capable of winning in today’s race conditions than the favorite.
To ensure we are comparing the most representative race for today’s conditions Fractional Charting’s expert handicappers watch all of the race replays for each horse and select the past performance that is most representative to today’s race conditions. So in the case above the “favorite” may have just gotten lucky and had a good trip last time out while a race more representative to the horses true ability in today’s conditions may have been 3 races back. Using our exclusive par-time-by-class standard that raw past performance is then adjusted to project the times for each point of call it is expected to earn in today’s race.
Horses that are only 1 – 3 lengths back in the Fractional Charting often offer good value on the tote board which can lead to bigger payouts. The best way to quickly uncover hidden value and identify horses capable of winning in today’s race is to identify any horse charting within one second (five lengths) of the chart-topper. These horses that are within one second of the fastest time should be considered capable of winning in today’s race.
In the example Fractional Charting image on the right in the 8th Race at Santa Anita on March 7, even though all horses in the Fractional Charting show an expected time below the average times for this level, the chart-topper and overlooked long-shot, Singing Kitty (just as the Fractional Charting predicted) went to the lead early fell back some at the 3/4 poll but then finished 1 1/2 lengths in the lead. Singing Kitty paid $41.60 on a $2.00 wager.
Finding the likely winner or uncovering hidden value in Maiden races using traditional raw past performances can be challenging especially if there are first-time starters entered that have no past performances published. Fractional Charting makes it easy to quickly determine if you should be looking at first-time starters which often give much better payouts. When using Fractional Charting in Maiden races, if no horse charts close to par time for the level, then that’s the time to give the new faces (first-time starters) a second look.
When looking at the example at the right in Race 9 at Aqueduct on April 24th you can compare the Average times at this level (listed at the top of the charting) to the chart topper (horse projected to win) we can see that Emily May Do It is projected to finish the race in 1:35.1 which is more than one second slower than the average final time 1:33.9 at this level. Since none of these horses chart close to the average finish time of today’s race it might be a good time to look at a first time starter as a contender. In this case the results listed at the bottom of the image show first time starter Sambrook won the race and paid $18 to win. Sambrook was making her race debut as a 5 year old but she did come from a route winning dam.
Often times the tote board will show false favorites while a less likely runner may be ready to step up. Often times this can happen due to cycle patterns that can be difficult to uncover when looking at just raw past performances. If you follow cycle patterns you understand that horses will often times regress after a big win only to come back faster and stronger after it has run a few more races and/or workouts. Because our expert handicappers are selecting the most representative past performance (the race/performance they feel the horse is capable of running today) and not just the fastest, best or most recent, like most handicappers do, you will now be able to uncover horses that may be coming off a down turn in their cycle patterns are ready to step up.
For each race, the par for the class for today’s race conditions is listed in bold type above the race and is useful in determining which horses are a strong fit for the class. Simply compare the par times for today’s race with each of the runner’s and any runner that is not within 2 seconds (10 lengths) of the final par time should be considered capable of competing at this level. Any horse that is within one second (5 lengths) of the top horses’ final time should be considered capable of winning.
In the Fractional Charting example on the right for the 2nd race at Santa Anita on March 8, Fame and Power was stepping up in class to a $56,000 Maiden Special Weight class in this race (from a 120 Race Class level to a 140 Race Class Level on Today’s Racing Digest’s Race Class Level Scale). After Fractional Charting normalized his last race to reflect today’s conditions it shows he can not only compete at this higher level but win. Which he did for a payout of $10.60. It should be noted that the actual race finish order was the same as what was in the Fractional Charting which would have paid out $99.20 on a $2.00 Superfecta.
It has been said: “It is not how fast the horse runs that is important, but how the horse runs fast.” Compare this with how the other horses run fast in the same race and you will begin to understand the importance of pace in a race and suddenly it will become easier to pick better priced winners.
In longer races called routes, especially in turf routes, the ability of a horse to have a fast closing ability can make a lot of difference in how the race will be run. This especially becomes important when a race has multiple horses that like to be out in the lead (front runners) where a potential speed duel may occur. To find the swiftest closer using Fractional Charting just look in the 2nd to last column titled LF for Last Fraction and the time that is underlined is the quickest last fraction.
In the example Fractional Charting to the right, Delta Ranger has the quickest last fraction of 34.3 which indicates this horse has the ability to close faster in the final stretch than the other horses. Compare this with the other horses running and we see for those horses that have the ability to compete in this race and get an early lead will not be able to sustain that lead and will be overtaken down the stretch. Looking at the results that is exactly what happened with Indian Nate and Wicked Heat. In this race the Fractional Charting predicted the pace of the race along with the top 2 finishers in the exact same order.
Fractional Charting is a great tool to quickly find horses that are contenders but may have been overlooked by the betting public. Typically, horses that are only 1 – 3 lengths back in the Fractional Charting often offer good value on the tote board which can lead to bigger payouts.
The best way to quickly uncover hidden value and identify horses capable of winning in a race is to identify any horse charting within one second (five lengths) of the chart-topper. These horses that are within one second of the fastest time should be considered capable of winning in today’s race.
In the example on the left we show the 2nd race at Aqueduct on February 1. We can see that the top 4 horses are within one second of the leader and all should be considered contenders in this race. The results show that the top 3 in the Fractional Charting also finished the race in the same order. A $2.00 Trifecta wager on this race paid $144.00.
Fractional Charting is a good fit for those handicappers that have found themselves in a slump. Chasing lost wagers can often times get a handicapper into trouble by trying to quickly get back what they have lost by playing long-shots or other unreasonable exotic wagers only to dig themselves into a bigger hole. We have found that it might be wise to get back to basics and a good way to do that is only play horses that do very well in Fractional Charting.
Even if there isn’t much value in a race, Fractional Charting can help you put together tickets that will consistently get you winners. In the example to the left the top 4 listed in the Fractional Charting finished in the same order. This resulted in a $2 superfecta wager paying out $73.80.