“It is not how fast the horse runs that is important, but how the horse runs fast.”
If you bet the highest speed figure horse to win in every race, you will probably achieve 30 to 35 percent winners and a flat bet loss. The loss means that the public is very much in tune with speed handicapping which, of course, drives mutuel payoffs down. The percentage means that roughly two thirds of the races are won by horses that are not the top speed figure horses. Some of this can be explained by the top speed horses not being suited to the distance or surface, going off form or being out classed. By far the main reason for this phenomenon, however, is that the top speed figure horse is not suited to the pace match-up of the race. It has been said: “It is not how fast the horse runs that is important, but how the horse runs fast.”
Effective pace handicapping requires that you know at least 3 things: 1) the running styles of the horses; 2) the pace figures of the horses; 3) the probable pace shape of the race.
Unlike traditional past performances that can often be difficult to understand pace scenarios in today’s race conditions, Fractional Charting simplifies the process by converting those raw past performance times into projected times each horse is expected to run at each point of call in today’s race. With these new projected running lines you can easily see the running style and pace figures for each horse and how they compare to the other horses in the field giving you the probable pace shape of the race.
How To Read Fractional Charting